Tonight was the first and perhaps only debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Thanks to all of you who joined us in the subscriber chat. It’s been a busy couple of weeks with travel and a lot ...

Systematic polling errors are common. Polls might be biased against Republicans again. Or against Democrats. Predicting which ...

It’s sometimes said that wealth is “destroyed” when the stock market declines, but it’s worth unpacking what that means. On the one hand, it’s true that when your investment portfolio loses value, ...

Last night, Marist College published a poll showing Democrat Josh Turek leading by 8 points in Iowa’s Senate race. Our Silver ...

Pop quiz. Which Senate seat are Democrats more likely to flip: Ohio or Maine? This might seem like an easy question. In 2024, Kamala Harris won the Pine Tree State by 7 points, but lost the Buckeye ...

In the history of Silver Bulletin/FiveThirtyEight election forecasts, I’m not sure there’s ever really been a case where we’ve been completely on the other side of the conventional wisdom — in other ...

Silver Bulletin Subscriber Questions (SBSQ) has been dormant since April. This wasn’t really planned, exactly. SBSQ is a popular feature. But it’s time to reboot SBSQ. Please leave questions for SBSQ ...

So if you take the polls at face value, we’re seeing a blue wave that’s … overwhelmingly concentrated in red states. As I wrote, there’s a coherent story behind it. And the evidence for it has been ...

The first official episode of Still Counting is out! Clare, Galen, and I discussed the most competitive Senate races, the GOP’s first-ever midterm convention, Trump’s standing within the Republican ...